2021 AMA Supercross 450 Season Preview

The 2021 AMA Supercross is going to be one for the ages filled with many exciting storylines. Can Eli Tomac repeat after his first Supercross title? Will Webb bounce back in 2021? How is Roczen's health? Will Adam Cianciarulo take the next step? How will the rookies fare? There is much more to discuss on top of those storylines, but first I want to break down the top 22 riders in the 450 class and show how stacked this class is. I am going to list everyone who has won a 250 or 450 supercross title and how many premier class wins they have to date.

Eli Tomac 2012 West Sx Champ, 2020 450 Sx Champ 34 wins

Adam Cianciarulo

Joey Savagty

Justin Bogle 2014 East Sx Champ

Vince Friese

Benny Bloss

Broc Tickle 2011 West SX Champ

Shane Mcelrath

Blake Baggett 1win

Justin Hill 2017 West Sx Champ

Jason Anderson 2014 West Sx Champ, 2018 450 Sx Champ 7 wins

Zach Osborne 2017 East Sx Champ, 2018 East Sx Champ 1 win

Dean Wilson

Justin Barcia 2011 East Sx Champ, 2012 East Sx Champ 4 wins

Malcolm Stewart 2016 East Sx Champ

Dylan Ferrandis 2019 West Sx Champ, 2020 West Sx Champ

Ken Roczen 2013 West Sx Champ 15 wins

Chase Sexton 2019 East Sx Champ, 2020 East Sx Champ

Justin Brayton 1 win

Cooper Webb 2015 West Sx Champ, 2016 West Sx Champ, 2019 450 Sx Champ 11 wins

Marvin Musquin 2015 East Sx Champ 8 wins

Aaron Plessinger 2018 West Sx Champ

Now that is a loaded field of 22 guys. That is a full gate right there and it is insane the talent. 14 guys have won a supercross title. 9 guys have won a 450 supercross race and 82 total wins between them. It is going to be a chore just to get a top ten in 2021.

One thing I really do not enjoy about supercross is that the start is so valuable that even if you are not as fast, but get a good start, you can finish great. Now I know the start is vital to winning, but I believe in the fastest guys should always win, not the best starter. It is hard to pass on a supecross track already and with the power of the 450 and lack of track changes over the years, the fastest guy does not always win. Now it is time to go over some of the storylines for 2021.

Can Eli Tomac repeat in 2021? Yes he can, but will he...NO. Let me tell you why. After years of close calls he finally got the monkey off his back and won the title. On top of that he had a child and he has nothing left to prove. He will be fast and he will win races but I think that top notch speed and desire is just down enough that he will not win again.

Will Webb bounce back in 2021? Of course he will bounce back. As much as I am not a fan of super cooper, he is my co-pick to win the title in 2021. He is a great starter, has a good bike and team, never quits and he will be there in the end.

How is Roczen's health? I cannot answer that as I do not know Kenny personally. If he was 100% he would be my pick for the title every year until he retires. It is hard to know where he is at with his body. I want Kenny to win this title over everyone else, but I think 2020 was his last best shot at it. He will be fast, he will win races but the title I believe will not be his.

Will Cianciarulo take the next step? I believe adam will get multiple wins and challenge for the title in 2021. If he stays off the ground, continues to get good starts, and keeps his blazing speed he will be right there. He is my other co-pick for the title. Adam has the edge in speed it is just if he can stay healthy the whole season I think he wins this thing.

How will the rookies fare? We have Chase Sexton, Dylan Ferrandis and Shane Mcelrath. Two of the three have double supercross titles in the 250 class so that is a plus. Ferrandis did just get hurt so I think that knocks him back a bit as far as expectations. this is how I see it. Sexton runs up front, gets some fastest qualifiers and some podiums. Mcelrath is solid but not as fast and is a consistent top 10-15 guy. Ferrandis when he is healthy will be top 5 any night.

The rest of the rest will be discussed here. Savatgty and Bogle need to use this year to build themselves back up. They both have dealt with injuries and need a solid injury-free year for their confidence and to show the teams what they have.

Motoconcepts racing is solid once again. They lose Justin Hill but gain Loss and Tickle which I think will be huge. All of their riders should be top ten threats at any time.

Husqavarna is interesting to nail down. They have two past champions and dean wilson who is also very solid. Osborne and Anderson will win a race, but I don't think either one will be in the title hunt.

Aaron Plessinger and Malcolm Stewart will be joining Ferrandis on the Star Yamaha 450. Plessinger is coming back from injury and I think speed wise he is a step behind the top tier. Mookie fever is alive and well and I want to see how he adapts to the yamaha before making any crazy claims.

The rest of the class is full of potential but relegated to dark horses. I truly believe the title will be a four way fight between Tomac, Roczen, Webb and Cianciarulo. Less than a month away from the opener and I cannot wait.